Nearshoring Capital: Where the Factories Actually Went

Nearshoring produces two datasets. The first is announcements, which are abundant, well distributed and politically useful. The second is completions, which are scarce, clustered and economically decisive. The gap between them is now wide enough to constitute an investable mispricing.

Completed capacity concentrates in three corridors with the labour pools, grid headroom and logistics density to absorb it. The other nine corridors on the announcement map are competing for electricians and substation slots that do not yet exist.

Policy has stopped being the constraint. Incentives are generous and stable across most of the map; what varies is the physical capacity to build. That inversion matters for anyone underwriting industrial real estate, power assets or municipal credit on the strength of an announcement pipeline.

The second wave, supplier migration into the proven corridors, is where returns remain unpriced. The full analysis ranks the corridors and the exposure classes positioned to capture it.